I sense another season of people having to put up with subtle "modern era trolling" as we head into winter.

As for the weather, who knows but I have noticed that the leaves' changing/dropping and the berries seem a bit earlier this year in my location. While I know they do not "predict" they are indicative or weather patterns in preceding weeks and months. Such patterns may also have other impacts...

 

I've no intention of doing that Doc, Jayni just wanted an explanation of the modern era.

But I do thing it's important that if we do have another mild one, we don't see it in isolation, the stats are rather too ominous to ignore. 

 

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One of our members only remains here because a for loop timed out before it completed account deletion. Due to that extraordinary stroke of luck I decided to leave his account for now, albeit with a reduced number of historic posts. As we aren't accepting new members everyone now walks on very thin ice. 

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One of our members only remains here because a for loop timed out before it completed account deletion. Due to that extraordinary stroke of luck I decided to leave his account for now, albeit with a reduced number of historic posts. As we aren't accepting new members everyone now walks on very thin ice. 

 

Well at 6ft 5 and 18 stone it shouldn't be long before I'm through it 

Why are new members no longer accepted ? I've got a number of  Net Weather followers who come over here in the winter to read my thoughts and they've asked me why it's not possible to sign up on TWO.

 

 

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One of our members only remains here because a for loop timed out before it completed account deletion. Due to that extraordinary stroke of luck I decided to leave his account for now, albeit with a reduced number of historic posts. As we aren't accepting new members everyone now walks on very thin ice. 

 Is that a sneak preview of your winter forecast? 

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Why are new members no longer accepted ? I've got a number of  Net Weather followers who come over here in the winter to read my thoughts and they've asked me why it's not possible to sign up on TWO.

Because "new members" are almost always retreads. What I will probably do is set up a link where people can request membership if they are genuinely interested. I will ask for a "proper" email account and username, and consider applications individually.

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 Is that a sneak preview of your winter forecast? 

Actually at this stage I think the prospects for the coming winter are relatively interesting.  

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Actually at this stage I think the prospects for the coming winter are relatively interesting.  

After several boring, virtually snowless winters in a row down here it's about time we had something interesting!

That said, I remember all the excitement last year with the snowcover watch to the east (albeit not as exciting as the October index thingy a few years back) - I remember the cold setting in over to the NE and of course it all got swept away.

I'll be keeping an eye out for an easterly this year, as ever. As you'll recall, I made a long post last winter two winters ago about the "death of the midwinter easterly". I'd love nothing more than to have to rewrite that after this winter!

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=15841

was the link, in case anyone is interested. It fits in with the "modern winter" stuff (which really winds some people up, for reasons I've never really worked out - something has changed since 2005, IMO, if not earlier).

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Because "new members" are almost always retreads. What I will probably do is set up a link where people can request membership if they are genuinely interested. I will ask for a "proper" email account and username, and consider applications individually.

Sounds like a sensible way forward to me, Brian.

At least by setting up such a procedure, there would be some way of sorting out those who are joining for the right reasons from the spammers & trolls. The only issue with having new user registrations de-activated for long periods of time is that some people out there who may be genuine potential new members are blocked from being able to join.

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After several boring, virtually snowless winters in a row down here it's about time we had something interesting!

That said, I remember all the excitement last year with the snowcover watch to the east (albeit not as exciting as the October index thingy a few years back) - I remember the cold setting in over to the NE and of course it all got swept away.

I'll be keeping an eye out for an easterly this year, as ever. As you'll recall, I made a long post last winter two winters ago about the "death of the midwinter easterly". I'd love nothing more than to have to rewrite that after this winter!

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=15841

was the link, in case anyone is interested. It fits in with the "modern winter" stuff (which really winds some people up, for reasons I've never really worked out - something has changed since 2005, IMO, if not earlier).

 

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everyone now walks on very thin ice. 

Last winter the standout was a 2 week frigid frosty spell in this area, with ice from the top to the bottom of the horse troughs, and dew ponds where you could have skated.  The 2 sleety showers have been consigned to the mental dustbin.

There is a time for optimism regarding the winter that is ahead of us: now is the time, before the long fetch south-westerlies set in, or the limpet high over Shannon.  There is a space, between now and December, where we can dream of easterlies or Arctic northerlies.

For some, the chance of just being able to walk on a puddle with very thin ice would be a rare pleasure.

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'Two full moons in a month indicate a wet month'

I needn't read any more if I'm brutally honest 😉

I only saw cold and snow the rest of his forecast I ignored.😁

Whilst on the subject of walking on thin ice please remember that I'll treat "baiting" in the same way as "trolling". That is account deletion. 

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Whilst on the subject of walking on thin ice please remember that I'll treat "baiting" in the same way as "trolling". That is account deletion. 

My last post certainly wasn’t???

 

 

I've no intention of doing that Doc, Jayni just wanted an explanation of the modern era.

But I do thing it's important that if we do have another mild one, we don't see it in isolation, the stats are rather too ominous to ignore. 

 

Ian, you spent pretty much the entirety of your original spell here (before 2009 or thenabouts) on TWO telling us that the cold winters we saw pre-1988 were virtually a thing of the past, and that because of what you call the "modern era" such spells or prolonged and sometimes severe cold couldn't happen again in the UK.

What the events of winter 2009/10, December 2010 and even winter 2012/13 all showed to me was just how wrong that view was. What I would be interested to know, is did you forecast each of those winters to be either mild or very mild? Knowing your forecasting history I wouldn't be at all surprised if you did.

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What I've been noticing recently is that we usually tend to get at least one colder than average month during the summer and/or autumn months but in the end, it always warms up in time for the winter. To an extent, this has already happened with August having a cooler than average CET and last year, it was November which was colder than average (indeed, that was the coldest November since 2010) although despite being so close to the start of winter, there wasn't really any snow with that.

This month's CET has also been running colder than average during this month so far, but it has warmed up a bit during the last day or so, and it wouldn't surprise me if that now ends up being the start of the usual big warm-up which then takes us through the winter with colder conditions not returning again until next spring/summer. The developing La Nina could also scupper our chances of cold weather as well, especially if it gets a bit stronger than expected (at one point in time, we hadn't even expected a La Nina and everyone at that time thought that there would be an El Nino and possibly a strong at that).

So, I don't have any doubts about it being yet another mild weather based on what recent years have been like, and the only question mark in my book is whether it will be a dry and high pressure dominated winter like last year, or a wet and stormy one like what we had in the year before that. At the moment, the models seem to be swinging towards a wet and stormy scenario. Furthermore, we are also going through a run of winters where every second winter has been really wet and stormy and if that continues for this year as well, this coming winter will also be a wet and stormy one.

Personally, I would love to see a cold winter and there will eventually come a time when we will get one, or possibly even two really cold winters in succession. However, I am struggling at the moment to see that actually happening, at least until we get onto the other side of the upcoming solar minimum in a few years' time.

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The only good thing that comes from a mild winter is the reduced heating bills and not having to wrap up like a stuffed Turkey to walk to the pub...... Never trust leaving my coat hanging up in a public house!

Halloween through till Bonfire night Misty Mild Gunk ruining firework night for many, Then I have a feeling that from Mid Autumn we will be plagued by cool winds from the N/NE/E but by the start of Winter we'll lose these to a more milder direction...just a hunch and what my Pyracanthra bushes are telling me!!

 

Gusty - You should of done that LRF in the hot tub yesterday 

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was the link, in case anyone is interested. It fits in with the "modern winter" stuff (which really winds some people up, for reasons I've never really worked out - something has changed since 2005, IMO, if not earlier).

 

It winds people up because it's such a short time sample that it's meaningless - and the suspicion is that the originator of the saying uses it to bait people in a "Ha! Ha! You're not going to get snow so [blows raspberry] to you"

FWIW, the period 2008/9 to 2012/13 contained three of the best winters of my 45 years (including two consecutive Xmas periods with thick snow on the ground). If that's how modern winters will pan out, then sign me up.

I'd take 2005-2016 over many winter periods - especially 1988-1999, which was bloody awful for snow IMBY.

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Whilst on the subject of walking on thin ice please remember that I'll treat "baiting" in the same way as "trolling". That is account deletion. 

A nice clean winter ahead hopefully but without the silly nonsense we usually get.

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One of our members only remains here because a for loop timed out before it completed account deletion. Due to that extraordinary stroke of luck I decided to leave his account for now, albeit with a reduced number of historic posts. As we aren't accepting new members everyone now walks on very thin ice. 

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Mount Agung in Indonesia set to blow. Anyone know if this fella has a super-eruption in it?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/24/bali-volcano-34000-flee-mount-agung-as-tremors-intensify

 

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